Trade-Strategy.comSignal Desk for BTC/USDCBTC/USDC backtest - 4-hour, 2024-10-11 to 2026-08-08
Momentum Same Direction
Momentum engine that follows the direction of the move, with standard TP/SL.
Key observations
- The window covers 667 days (2024-10-11 to 2026-08-08). BTC/USDC moved from 60,538 to 64,880.3, a +7.17% change over the period.
- The engine opened 12 long and 11 short positions - 0.2 trades per week on average - with a mean holding time of 0.7 hours.
- The best trade gained +1.76R (+177.00 USDC) on 2026-04-13; the worst lost -1.25R (-126.00 USDC) on 2026-04-11.
- The deepest equity drawdown reached -246.00 USDC between 2026-06-14 and 2026-06-18.
- Longs closed in profit 100% of the time; shorts 54.5%.
Backtest chart
Last 236 4-hour candles with entries (arrows) and exits (circles - green win, red loss).
Monthly breakdown
| Month | Trades | Win rate | PnL | Total R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 3 | 100% | +531.00 USDC | +5.28R |
| 2026-06 | 13 | 69.2% | +1,101.00 USDC | +10.88R |
| 2026-05 | 3 | 100% | +531.00 USDC | +5.28R |
| 2026-04 | 4 | 75% | +405.00 USDC | +4.03R |
Recent trades
| Date | Side | Entry | Exit | Result | PnL | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | LONG | 62,766.9 | 63,185.35 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-07-02 | LONG | 60,235.3 | 60,636.87 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-07-01 | LONG | 58,375.2 | 58,764.37 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-25 | SHORT | 61,114.8 | 61,318.52 | -1.24R | -123.00 USDC | stop |
| 2026-06-24 | SHORT | 62,736 | 62,317.76 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-18 | SHORT | 63,931.2 | 64,144.3 | -1.24R | -123.00 USDC | stop |
| 2026-06-17 | SHORT | 65,781.7 | 66,000.97 | -1.24R | -123.00 USDC | stop |
| 2026-06-14 | LONG | 63,769.2 | 64,194.33 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-10 | LONG | 61,127.6 | 61,535.12 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-09 | SHORT | 62,788.8 | 62,370.21 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-07 | LONG | 61,545.7 | 61,956 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-05 | SHORT | 62,094 | 62,300.98 | -1.24R | -123.00 USDC | stop |
| 2026-06-04 | LONG | 62,464 | 62,880.43 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-03 | SHORT | 65,490.9 | 65,054.29 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-03 | LONG | 66,251.2 | 66,692.87 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-06-02 | SHORT | 69,240.7 | 68,779.1 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-05-14 | LONG | 79,316.2 | 79,844.97 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-05-13 | SHORT | 80,488.6 | 79,952.01 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-05-04 | LONG | 78,471.2 | 78,994.34 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
| 2026-04-29 | SHORT | 77,302 | 76,786.65 | +1.76R | +177.00 USDC | target |
Why these parameters
Momentum Same Direction is a continuation strategy: it measures the strength and direction of recent BTC/USDC price movement through a short EMA 14 filter, and enters in the direction of that move once momentum crosses the signal threshold. It joins an established move rather than trying to fade it.
The engine runs in global position mode with a 15-minute cooldown and exits at fixed 2% take-profit / 1% stop-loss on the deployed position (30,000 USDC notional at 3x leverage). On 5-minute data the same engine produced almost no signals in our dataset, which is why the published pages use 1h and 4h - higher timeframes filter the noise and give momentum room to develop.
Because momentum entries ride the direction of the move, most trades resolve quickly in the direction of the trend - the win rate is high but each win is capped at the 2% take-profit.
How this backtest works
This backtest replays the Momentum Same Direction strategy over BTC/USDC perpetual candles between 2024-10-11 to 2026-08-08 - the most recent 4-hour candles available in the market data feed. The simulation runs server-side and every entry decision uses only information that existed at the signal time, so there is no lookahead bias in the results.
Positions are sized at 30,000 USDC notional with 3x leverage (10,000 USDC capital) for the base variants, or at 2% take-profit / 1% stop-loss of that deployed position for the standard TP/SL variants. Exit rules execute on the next candle after the signal, and a trade closes when the target or stop is hit, when the maximum holding time expires, or when the data window ends.
Transaction costs are modeled as 0.04% on entry and 0.04% on exit, plus a 0.03% daily funding charge for positions held overnight. The 0.08% round-trip cost is realistic for a retail perpetual-futures account on major venues.
Every trade produced by the engine is shown on this page - nothing is filtered or excluded. The trade table lists the most recent 20, the chart marks every trade in the window, and the monthly table aggregates all of them.
Reading the results
Win rate
78.26% of the 23 trades closed in profit (18 winners of 23). With the fixed 2:1 reward-to-risk exit the breakeven win rate is about 33%. This result sits 45.3 percentage points above that breakeven point.
Profit factor
A profit factor of 5.1 means the engine made 5.1 USDC (in R terms) for every 1 USDC it lost - a positive expectancy before costs.
Average R and total R
Each trade is measured in R - multiples of the initial stop distance. The average trade on this page returned 1.11R, and all trades together accumulated +25.47R. A positive total R over a window of 667 days is the most honest single summary of whether the edge held up.
Max drawdown
The equity curve fell -2.48R from peak to trough in R terms (2026-06-14 to 2026-06-18) and -246.00 USDC in USDC terms. Drawdown is the price of every strategy - the question is whether the recovery took days or months.
PnL vs R
R multiples scale profit against the distance to the stop, while USDC PnL is the fixed-notional result after costs. The two can diverge when stops are wide (a big stop makes each R worth more USDC), which is why both are shown - the R curve is the fairer comparison across different stop distances.
Tips for using this backtest
- Momentum works best when a move is still building - most of this strategy's win rate comes from the 2% take-profit being hit within a few bars.
- The 4h page covers roughly 2.5 years of data - a far more representative sample than the 1h page's half-year, so trust the 4h statistics more.
- Check the app's live track record before sizing up; the app offers paper trading to verify the signal flow in real time.
Limitations and risks
- The window is a sample, not a promise: results cover 2024-10-11 to 2026-08-08 and shift as new candles arrive and older ones drop out of the window.
- Slippage is not modeled beyond the 0.04% per-side cost assumption - live fills on fast moves can be worse than assumed.
- The engine and its default parameters were developed on past data. A change in BTC market regime (volatility, funding rates, liquidity) can invalidate an edge that worked in this window.
- Funding is charged as a flat 0.03% per day of holding; actual funding varies continuously with market conditions and can be higher in crowded trades.
- This is educational software. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any position, and past performance never guarantees future results.
Other timeframes
Other versions of this backtest
FAQ
What does "momentum" mean in this strategy?
It measures the strength and direction of recent price movement with a short EMA 14 filter and enters in the direction of the move once momentum scores above the signal threshold.
Why 1h and 4h timeframes?
On 5-minute candles the same engine produces almost no signals in our dataset, while 1h and 4h give cleaner momentum readings with fewer, more reliable entries.
What does the profit factor mean?
Profit factor divides gross wins by gross losses, measured in R multiples. Above 1 the strategy made more than it lost; a value like 10+ usually reflects a small number of losses rather than a huge win rate.
What costs are included?
The simulation applies 0.04% per side (buy and sell) plus a 0.03% daily funding charge for positions held overnight - 0.08% round trip plus funding on longer holds.
How is this backtest calculated?
The server replays the strategy over the last 4-hour BTC/USDC candles (2024-10-11 to 2026-08-08). Entries only use information available at signal time - no future data - and the full trade log is listed on this page.
Why does the result differ from the live app?
This page uses the strategy's default settings over a fixed historical window. The app runs live signals with your chosen settings, and results change as new candles arrive.
Is this investment advice?
No. Backtests are historical simulations with fixed parameters. Past results do not guarantee future performance, and Trade-Strategy.com is educational software.
Backtests are historical simulations of past BTC/USDC candle data with fixed parameters. They do not guarantee future results and are not investment advice.